Three Taiwanese non-governmental organisations participated in a tabletop exercise on Tuesday that simulated dramatic escalations in Chinese military activity near Taiwan in 2030, including Chinese naval ships invading Taiwan’s territorial seas
Focus Taiwan reported that the two-day exercise, which focused primarily on China’s “grey zone” coercive actions that fall short of open conflict, was jointly hosted by the Taipei School of Economics and Political Science Foundation, an educational foundation; the Taipei-based think tank Centre for Peace and Security; and the Council on Strategic and Wargaming Studies (CSWS), a research institute.
Several former defence officials attended the event, including former Chief of the General Staff Lee Hsi-min, retired US Navy Admiral Michael Mullen, former US Director of National Intelligence Dennis Blair, former Japanese Chief of Staff of the Joint Staff Shigeru Iwasaki, and former Chief of Staff of the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force Tomohisa Takei, according to a Focus Taiwan report.
The participants were divided into four teams: Taiwan, China, the United States, and Japan. CSWS Chairman Alexander Huang stated at the event’s outset that the scenarios were set in 2030; therefore, the wargames are being held in the context of Taiwan having received all of the weapons it has previously purchased from the United States, according to a Focus Taiwan report.
To ensure that participants could speak freely and frankly, the organizers encouraged journalists not to attribute any comments made during the sessions. In “Move 1” of the drill, China exceeds the outer boundary of Taiwan’s territorial waters, which stretch 12 nautical miles from its shore. This comes amid frequent bilateral Cabinet-level meetings between Taiwan and the United States, despite Beijing’s complaints, and a deteriorating economy that is causing scattered social unrest across China, according to the Focus Taiwan report.
Team Taiwan’s actions included dispatching Coast Guard and Navy vessels to shadow the intruders and sending submarines to “ambush zones” in waters northeast and southwest of Taiwan’s main island. Focus Taiwan reported that Taiwan decided not to open fire on the intruders based on the concept that it “does not fire the first shot, thus starting a war”.
Team US responded that it would expand intelligence cooperation with Taiwan and deterrence by deploying soldiers from Guam or Sasebo, Japan, into the region, but that troops would not be stationed in Taiwan yet. According to Focus Taiwan, Taiwan may have to open fire at some point to eject the Chinese intruders, but it must first warn the Chinese.
