China will set a lower economic growth goal for 2026 than last year, the South China Morning Post reported, in a sign top leaders may refrain from measures to reverse a slowdown that intensified in recent months.
The target range will be 4.5% to 5% this year, the newspaper said, citing three unidentified sources briefed on the matter. That’s down from “around 5%” in 2025 and compares with a goal of 8% as recently as in 2011.
Policymakers likely agreed on the decision in December at a major planning conference in Beijing, but won’t officially publicize the new objective until the annual session of China’s top legislature in March.
Gross domestic product expanded 5% last year, data released last week showed, with record exports compensating for cooling private consumption and an unprecedented drop in investment. That lopsided growth model will probably become harder to sustain in an era of rising protectionism across the world.
President Xi Jinping has already hinted at his greater tolerance for slower growth, warning officials against “inefficient” investment. Among the steps taken so far to support the economy, the central bank delivered only targeted rate cuts while the Finance Ministry opted for incremental measures to encourage private borrowing.
