Pakistan’s attempt to secure a $10-billion financial backstop from the United States appears to be facing significant headwinds, with economists and intelligence assessments suggesting that the request has little chance of succeeding under current geopolitical and economic conditions.
According to top intelligence sources, Pakistan Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb formally raised the proposal for an Exchange Stabilization Facility (ESF) during his visit to Washington and discussions with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. The request comes at a time when Pakistan is grappling with fragile foreign exchange reserves and continuing dependence on the International Monetary Fund.
Economists familiar with the proposal argue that the facility, if considered at all, would not resemble a grant or a conventional bailout. Former adviser to Pakistan’s Ministry of Finance Dr Khaqan Najeeb said such a mechanism would more likely take the form of a collateralised and reversible currency swap arrangement, similar to repo-style liquidity support that the US has extended in limited circumstances to other countries.
The objective of the proposed ESF would be to strengthen the State Bank of Pakistan’s gross reserves and provide a liquidity buffer against future balance-of-payments shocks. However, independent Pakistani economists reportedly believe the chances of obtaining such support are slim, pointing to America’s own fiscal constraints, volatile global energy markets and growing geopolitical tensions.
The report also says that both US and Pakistani officials, as well as the IMF, have maintained public silence on the request. In the absence of any indication of American support, Pakistan is expected to remain reliant on its ongoing IMF programme and traditional multilateral lenders.
Intelligence sources suggest that any substantial financial assistance from Washington would likely be tied to demanding macroeconomic reforms, continued IMF engagement and broader geopolitical expectations.
The discussions are also taking place against the backdrop of a long and contentious history in US-Pakistan security relations. Intelligence sources argue that Pakistan benefited from billions of dollars in American military and logistical support during the War on Terror while elements within its security establishment allegedly maintained links with the Afghan Taliban, the Haqqani Network and anti-India groups such as Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed.
